AmishGramish on 31 January 2007
Typhoid Larry said:
My predictions are based on the assumption that the next console cycle begins in late 2011, that Sony does not lower the PS3's price until 2008 or 2009, and that the rest of the systems experience at least a 20% drop in price before 2009. (Also, the handheld side is just assuming Nintendo continues to sell through every single DS unit they manufacture.)
DS - 99 million (32 JP, 34 NA, 33 EU)
PSP - 37 million (7 JP, 14 NA, 16 EU)
PS3 - 38 million (8 JP, 13 NA, 17 EU)
Wii - 70 million (23 JP, 22 NA, 23 EU)
360 - 47 million (1.5 JP, 25.5 NA, 20 EU/Other)
I find it funny how some people just don't know how the market and consumers react, except for their little isolated group.
Look at the DS, it's selling about 1.7:1 PSP in the U.S., and it will drop down to 1.5 or 1.3 when the price of the PSP drops. And the GBA and GBA SP sold about 60M cumulative, so I find it extremely unlikely for the entire PSP and DS consoles to sell double that.
The price of the PS3 and PSP are the highest factor in the sales, and Sony would have to be extremely stupid to not to drop the price in 07.
And when the PSP has a lot better year than the DS, in terms of higher ratings of games and more games that are rated, you have to see that the tides will probably change, or at least move a lot more towards the PSP when the price falls. I can see this happening for the PS3, because a lot of people aren't willing to pay $600 or $500 for a PS3 right now, but will be willing to pay $400 or $500 for a PS3 now.
That's basically all you hear about the talk about the PS3 and PSP, in that they are too expensive. Barely anyone talks about how the PSP has had crap for games (even though it has had a better year than the DS), and most talk about how it's too expensive. The PS3, most people just say it's not worth $600 or $500, but a lot of them would be willing to spend that much if it had a lot of AAA games.
