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rhisc on 19 December 2008
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Dodece said:
The first installment of the two expansions will retail for $20. At least that is what one retailer has the price listed at. You can find the link on these forums. That said this is the math. For each expansion.

Assuming your math is correct. The formula would be 50,000,000/($20x.7)=3.6 mil

Which given that both expansions are priced the same equals out to 1.8 mil per expansion. That in turn given this sites numbers which says the game has sold currently 6.38 mil means that each expansion must have an attach rate of 28%. Factoring in additional sales given that last tracked week in North America the game sold 30,000 copies it is safe to assume the game may have sold seven million copies of the game by the launch of the first expansion. That would equate to perhaps 25%.

Honestly I am unsure as to whether it can actually do that. Given that the shivering aisles sold only 7% according to this site. However it is probably safe to say that the map packs for Halo are probably a better qualifier. That said it may be a near run thing. This is not a guaranteed winner, but as always that is dependent on the quality. If the expansion is closer to a Vice City in scope, and nuance. The expansion could very well sell closer to a 40% attach rate especially if the expansion package comes in a physical format.

So much is an unknown. We really need to know more about the expansion before we can judge. If it is closer to a full fledged Grand Theft Auto game it should succeed. However if it is short of ten hours of content it could really end up being a bragging right.

 

Your numbers seem fair.  The 1.8 million per expansion is not out of the question.  The COD4 Map packs sold over a million in 9 days on Xbox Live.  That was with a smaller user base at the time.   The $20 price isn't unreasonable as people have no problems paying $15 for Portal on XBLA.  You can guarantee that this will get a big advertising campaign from Microsoft while no other DLC or digital downloads for that matter has had much advertising.  Even if this doesn't pay off they are planting the seeds for what is possible with digital downloads.