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Qly said:
$50,000,000 / ($30*.7) = 2.3Million units to break even...

Not really, they get 30% so it's .3 not .7, also, it'll be priced at 20 bucks, so:

$50,000,000 / ($20*.3) = 8.3Million units to break even, with an install base of 6.38 million, even with two installments, it'll NEVER break even

another article

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/20/arts/20vide.html?fta=y

 

Take-Two executives explained the payment in a conference call with financial analysts last week. The $50 million will come in two $25 million installments as the episodes are released, starting in March 2008.

A Take-Two spokesman declined to elaborate on the conference call. Despite the success of Grand Theft Auto, Take-Two has struggled financially and recently faced a shareholder revolt that ended with Strauss Zelnick, a longtime media executive, taking over as chairman.

Microsoft refused to discuss its financial relationship with Take-Two. In a statement, Microsoft said, “The quality, depth and breadth of our Xbox 360 portfolio is a testament to the great relationships we’ve established over the years with our third-party partners.”

Typically, Microsoft and third-party publishers split the revenue generated when players download games from Xbox Live. Games usually cost $10 or less, but Microsoft could charge $20 or more for the additional Grand Theft Auto IV episodes, depending on how many hours of playing time they offer. So the $50 million for Take-Two appears to be a sort of advance on royalties



Predictions JAN 08

2008 PS3-19.5M(actual 19.5) XBOX360-23M(actual 27.5) Wii - 37M(actual 45.8M)

End of 2009 PS3-27 25M XBOX360-30 35M Wii - 48 63M (revised DEC 08)

Price Point
Mid 2008 Wii $250 Xbox360$249 Xbox360(HDD)$299 PS3 $399

Mid 2009 Wii $189 Xbox360$199 Xbox360(HDD)$249 PS3 $339

Mid 2010 Wii $ 149 Xbox360$159 Xbox360(HDD)$199 PS3 $289