@Gilgamesh: If you look at the final consoles' LTD sales, the attach rates will be horrible. San Andreas sold under 15% of the current PS2 install base, while GTA IV is currently at ~28% of the PS3's. Also, I highly doubt the PS3 will make it to 65mil.
I'll repeat what I said in my earlier post once more:
- GT3 managed a 30% attach rate in Japan, by selling 1.7m copies to 5.6m PS2 users.
- Over 6m copies of GT3 were shipped outside Japan (8m inc Japan), when the PS2 userbase there was ~17.5m (VGC numbers).
- Over 9m copies of GT3 were shipped outside Japan (11m inc Japan), when the PS2 userbase there was ~35m (VGC numbers).
(I'm aware shipped > sold, but VGC doesn't have sold on here)
With that said, this is what needs to happen for GT5 to hit 10mil:
Obviously, the game needs to be as big of a hit as GT3 was. If it can keep its high attach rates it had with early PS2 users (25%+), there won't be a problem. Also, the PS3 needs to sell at least 45m consoles. If Sony fucks up in 09', there's a chance they won't sell enough.
My guess the split would look like this:
~1.2m Japan, ~3.4m Americas, ~5.4m Others
Yeah, it might be somewhat of a longshot, but not entirely out of reach.
