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Metsadah said:
to be honest, right now it looks like Sony finally has a better line up with KZ2 and Uncharted 2 and God of War 3.

So its either a weaker year for MS or they announce something spectacular.

I dont think Mass Effect 2 and Alan Wake are going to outsell the 3 above. Mass Effect 2 will be great and will have better sales then its predecessor, but its still an RPG and wont sell with the same big numbers as a shooter or action game (look at fable 2). Alan Wake actually the same story, its not clear what it actually is. I know its probably fantastic and all, but its still a new IP that has to proof itself.

I dont see an exclusive call of duty (that would be fantastic for MS), maybe some exclusive content, but that concept is still very dodgy.

See, that's what I really just do not understand.  Why are people thinking that Killzone 2, Uncharted 2 and God of War III will be HUMONGOUS sales giants???  What evidence is there that really backs that up?

GoW sold 3.21 mil with 2.48 of that being in the US.  GoWII sold 2.35 mil (a big drop, mind you) and 1.64 of that was in the US.  Currently, NA is Sony's slowest market.  So why is it that suddenly this is the game that will see Halo 3 or SSBB numbers on the PS3 worldwide?  It makes.  No.  Sense.

KZ2 ................... the first game sold 750k in shooter happy NA.  Your witness.

Uncharted 2.  Ok, the first game sold 2.18 mil to burgeoning PS3 audience after a pretty slow start.  Its a beloved game by many from a talented and respected developer that got good review scores.  The majority of sales were in the largest PS3 market Europe.  That bodes well for the sequel, which should improve nicely on the formula.  Sadly, everything I stated there also was what we felt coming into the release of Resistance 2 (exception being that the first sold 3.35 mil; much higher than Uncharted) and look how that has turned out so far with its sales.

I'm not saying that all of the MS games will sell big, ridiculous numbers (2008 see VP:TiP, Too Human, NGII and BK:N&B), but there ISN'T a substantial reason to believe that they will sell less than the PS3 releases that were cited.

Now Gran Turisimo 5, on the other hand . . .