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to be honest, right now it looks like Sony finally has a better line up with KZ2 and Uncharted 2 and God of War 3.

So its either a weaker year for MS or they announce something spectacular.

I dont think Mass Effect 2 and Alan Wake are going to outsell the 3 above. Mass Effect 2 will be great and will have better sales then its predecessor, but its still an RPG and wont sell with the same big numbers as a shooter or action game (look at fable 2). Alan Wake actually the same story, its not clear what it actually is. I know its probably fantastic and all, but its still a new IP that has to proof itself.

I dont see an exclusive call of duty (that would be fantastic for MS), maybe some exclusive content, but that concept is still very dodgy.