When does Sony reach the point of no return in Japan?

[HappySqurriel]

albionus said: I know there's little point to responding to the claim that the Wii is a fad. It's simply what Sony fanboys rationalize the stunning change of fortunes in the video game industy as they cry themselves to sleep every night. Nevertheless, I'll expand on something mentioned somewhere on this thread, while games can be a fad the system is not (unless it only supports one type of game or something like that). Generally speaking a system needs a "fad" game at or near launch. Why else are non fanboys going to shell out twice what they will pay 2 years later for a system with only a few games? You need a game that people want to play like crazy for 2-12 months until more games come out because otherwise they won't be playing or buying your system.

I also think that it is important to realize how fads work anyways ... Most fads don't apear out of nowhere and they take a long time to disapear after they have hit their peak. If the Wii were a fad, you'd (probably) see peak sales in Q4 2009 and it would (probably) only start to finally cool down around 2011/2012 ... Consider Reality TV and how it took nearly a decade before it hit its peak popularity and it is still dying slowly.