Stromprophet on 30 March 2007
sgstair said:
I'll take the bet; Wii total sales will most definitely be higher than X360 and PS3 sales combined after the numbers are in from December 2008 (North America), December 28, 2008 or Jan 4, 2008 (Japan), and 2008 (other) (maybe other will be more granular by then?)
"How can he be so sure?" some of you say...
For one, I can run some numbers that give me a rough estimate:
If I assume Europe sales will be the same as North America sales (due purely to lack of data on europe - I'm aware this isn't accurate), and I also assume that all consoles will continue selling at the rate they did last week/month (Feb/07 NA, Mar 25/07 Japan), Project that forward 22 months/ 93 weeks, and Wii is in the lead.
Again, the margin for error is pretty high, that's not enough... But I have another ace up my sleeve:
The wii sales are -still- limited by supply. They could be higher. PS3/x360, not so much.
So, that's my opinion; Nothing's forcing you to agree, and we'll certainly see more in upcoming weeks/months....
I think you'd be wrong. Trends don't stay the same over the course of a consoles lilfe.
WII SALES ARE NOT LIMITED BY SUPPLY! HELLO! All you guys are being ridiculous. In NA January to February sales went from 450k to 350k...did Nintendo just produce 100k less consoles?
Japan, January 450k for the month, February 303k, 150k less. I'm sorry, eithwer Nintendo is making less and purposely supply constraining the system or you all are being insane. It's obvious they are selling less than they were (which you would expect off holiday).
So increasing the supply will not garner new sales because it's not in supply shortage. You can get a Wii online. I have seen them sitting on shelves for the last month. Sure, they are selling out, but point being it wasn't impossible to find one 2 months ago if you knew what you were doing.
PS2 was only able to achieve outselling the others by a ridiculous amount because they had all the advantages to begin with.
1) They launched 1 1/2 years before the others in Japan
2) They launched 1 year before the other 2 in US
3) They had the 3rd party support of practically every company
4) The forced a price advantage on the other 2 very quickly
1) Wii is launching behind and against another system
2) They don't have all the 3rd party support (in fact 3rd party is just coming on which means the games are 12-24 months behind)
3) They won't have the price on Microsoft as soon as they drop price which they will this year.
Essay Pro