By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Squilliam on 15 December 2008
Edit Thread
Sullla said:
Squilliam said:

You can't use previous generations to really predict whats going to happen in the current generation. The generations have all been different with different circumstances, and this generation isn't playing out like any previous one. Just like the Germans could still surprise the allies with the battle of the Bulge I would say people are under-estimating the response Sony can make, just as people thought Microsoft was completely out of the game 6 months ago.  

Squilliam, I enjoy reading your threads, and I have a lot of respect for you as a poster. With that said, this is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen you write.

This is the standard analyst cop-out explanation. "Oh no! This generation is so different from all the others! No one could have predicted what would happen! It's not our fault that were we horribly inaccurate!" It's pure bull. Yes, there are always some differences in each generation, but the larger trends remain the same. Here are a few of them:

- Within one year of all platforms appearing, a clear market leader emerges and establishes dominance.
- The console with the largest library of highly desired exclusive games always comes out on top, because software sales are what drives hardware sales. I devoted a whole thread to showing this, the fact that Wii is succeeding because of tremendous first-party software sales. It's not about technology - it's about games.
- Market leading platforms eventually see a movement of third-party developers towards them. Secondary platforms slowly see an eroding of developer support. This has never not happened, and it is slowly ongoing right now.
- Lifetime platform sales always work on a bell curve, starting out low and then peaking somewhere around year 3 (give or take one year) before slowing down again. There has never been a succesful console or handheld that had sales declining year over year entering the third year.

I could keep going, but I think the point is obvious. Any time someone throws up their hands and says "this generation is different from all the others!", they aren't paying attention. (Or, more likely, they're trying to offer a fanboy explanation for why their console of choice isn't succeeding.) Nothing really shocking has happened this generation. Once it became clear that the Wii was a huge hit, it was obvious that it would become the market leader in all three regions. I was convinced of this as early as April 2007: when it became clear that the PS3's European launch was not going to propel it past the Wii. Did anyone who wasn't a fanboy expect GTA to kill the Wii? That certainly wasn't surprising. The relative decline of PS3 sales this holiday is the single most surprising thing to happen in the last 12 months, IMO.

If you're going to throw out past trends to try and predict the future, what's the point of this website at all? You might as well do what the ancient Greeks did, and look at sheep entrails for predictions.

 

 This generation is completely different from other generations. The circumstances have changed:

  • Japan is irrelevent for the first time ever. It used to command a significant portion of the market.
  • Never before has a significant proportion of the best talent from third parties not been focused on the winning platform.
  • There has never been a generation where the leading console was significantly underpowered in comparison.
  • There has never been such a stark demographic stratification between consoles.
  • Has there ever been a precedent where the platform in 2nd place has increased for 4 holiday seasons in a row?
  • There has never been a situation where two of the 3 strong platforms are considered equal for the purposes of third party development and considered together against the leading platform.

I think thats enough. There are of course some precedents which can be used to predict future generations, however past precedent in the console market is not the best course for soley predicting the future. For example many people were citing past precedent as the reason why they believed that the Xbox 360 would decline this holiday season. However there are some useful precedents that we can use. For example, its pretty much assured that a console generation isn't won or lost until the past market leader launches or an early mover gains significant traction.



Tease.