Ok, for one, I don't believe Bluy-ray will ever achieve the success that DVD has for two main reasons; the first one being they are not a major upgrade from DVD. DVDs replaced VHS as the mainstream movie format because it was such a major change from the format. It was more convenient, had a completely new format, much more space, better picture quality, scene selection, extra content, no rewinding, etc. Blu-ray on the other hand is just a "better" DVD. Even when the price drops substantially, Sony is going to have an uphill battle in convincing people to rebuy all their old movies in Blu-ray. The mass consumer doesn't care as much about HD as Sony and its fans will have you believe.
Second is, despite the denial of the Sony fanboys, digital distribution is on the rise, and I'm willing to wager will become extremely popular within the next 5 -10 years, just like music has. And until that time, DVDs will still be the main choice by the mass consumer. Sure, Blu-ray will always have its niche of techies and Sony fans who absolutely need their hard copies of movies. However, I think the future belongs to DD, and DVD will fill the void between now and then.
So although I think Blu-ray will continue to be successful and gain popularity over the next decade, I believe unlike the VHS or DVD era that has been dominated by one format, the rise of DD will result in a schism in the market, where Blu-ray keeps about half the market who appeases the traditional movie audience who wants to stick to tangible movie disks, and DD gains the other half of the market. For that reason, blu-ray will never gain the success that DVD had, because there will simply be better, more convienient options available made possible by newer technologies.
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