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Keep in mind that nearly all the best selling games this gen are multiplayer. The top single player HD game this gen so far has been Assassins Creed, and it would have sold much less on a single platform (not quite Halo 3 / GeoW2 level). I'm not sure how Alan Wake is going to be like, but it sounds like a single player deal to me, which limits its impact.

It'll be interesting, though. Will the top selling PS3 exclusive of 09 top the 360's? For the first year it may happen, if GT5 is brought out.