| frybread said: Looking through the charts, all consoles seem to follow a trend: high initial Christmas sales, but from there on out there is an arc that peaks and then drops. XB GC GBA All follow this trend. Older consoles seem to as well, though the data isn't as reliable. PS2 is the only console I found that bucks the trend, as it recovers from the downward arc in 2005. But could it be that PS2 only recovered due to 360 shortages in '05, and Wii shortages in '06 and '07? Or perhaps from winning the console war?
With 20% fewer sales than last year, PS3 seems to be starting a downward arc - at least in the US. Do you think it will recover? Nov. 2007 / Nov 2008 = Differential |
I think it will recover somewhat. While I'm certain the PS3 has firmly entrenched itself in 3rd place this generation, I don't think it will end with the disasterously low marketshare it currently seems to be headed for (15%). PlayStation is still a big name, and the PS3 is a great system, it's real downfall at this point, is as everyone knows, it's price. Once that comes down, sales will pick up substantially. Because of the PS3's specs, it should age well, giving it a chance to rebound.
But I'm no Sony fanboy, let me make this clear: I expect the rebound to be relatively small. They'll only avoid a complete disaster. PS3 will be viable for developers to continue to develop on and Sony will make enough to go ahead and make a PS4. However, it will never leave 3rd place, and it will go into the next generation without the momentum it squandered this time.
