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Assumptions are not very good without any information.

We just have information that Wii is doing great, so we should assume it will do at least good.

Using your post info, I will think people would want the latest, hip, technology and would get a Wii 2. Think of it like a Ipod or Iphone, so many 'generations' (changes) to them and but still sell. We might see a PS2 to PS3 effect if you are right, Wii2 doing poorly at start since people will be satisfied with Wii.