Dirty, the lead will be bigger than 8.5 by the time that Sony drops the price.
We're looking at 8.5-9.0 by the end of the year + whatever comes up in January till Sony drops the price. It's unlikely that the PS3 will lead the X360 on any given week till they drop the price. The only X factor would be the KZ2 launch, which may get it close, but that's likely only to be a blip on the radar.
And having said that, the PS3 outsold the X360 by 600,000 units - 200k a month, in January through March this year (08), but it's lead on the X360 right after it's price cut are nowhere near what the X360 is doing to the PS3 now (Nov-Dec's cume for the PS3 in 2007 had it 210,000 units above the X360. The X360 managed that lead this past week alone.)
Realistically, we're looking at a 10,000,000+ gap for Sony to overcome by March, should it decide to drop the price.
Then, if they do, we assume that it's going to sell some sort of gaudy numbers that would make the X360 lose a lot of ground, but that's questionable. The X360 is selling far more consoles at the $200-300 pricepoint than the PS3 did at it's $400 pricepoint.
So having said all of that, unless Sony gets major momentum in 2009, the gap will be 10m, and be nearly impossible for the PS3 to whittle away in any sort of relevancy. The earliest date that the PS3 could overtake the X360...IF it ever did, would be late 2011 - and by then, the X360 successor would be out, and Sony would have lost so much cash to beat the X360 for 2nd place, it'd be the litmus test of what a Pyrrhic victory is.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
