Xbox 360 could hit 28 Million at years end if it follows last years trends

[Squilliam]

seece said:

Squilliam said:

seece said:
And to think people thought 26 mill was a stretch. I think the week before christmas will be insane and help it on its way, would really like to know M$ shipment numbers.

Yes I think it can do it!

 

 With NPD sales due tomorrow, I think the words "Xbox 360 undertracked" sound really good right about now!

As for Christmas, yeah its insane! It completely shatters my expectations every time. I always underestimate it because every time I forget just how massive it really is.

Oh man that would be awesome if it was undertracked, just so I could shove the numbers in Bigjons face, there I said it :|

 

That will probably come back to bite me *ahem*

 

If (and it seems all but certain) the PS3 does not get a price cut anytime soon aka March - September, what lead do you think the 360 will gain on the PS3? Will it reach a "point of no return"?

I must come across as anti sony but thats not true, I applaud M$ this generation, they seem to be fighting this battle the hardest and I think they deserve these sales more than Sony would.

 

 

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Jan 2008 to 01st Mar 2008:

 

 

Console	PS3	X360
Total	1,819,996	1,255,436

If you look at those numbers the PS3 outsold the Xbox 360 by a mere 210,000 over the holidays and yet went on to post 50% higher sales the first quarter of the next year. Like it did last year, the first quarter will show off Microsofts strengths and Sonys weakness even more than the holiday season. The number of people willing to buy at that $400 price point would likely be critically depleted by the end of the holiday season.

I would expect the Xbox 360 to double the sales of the PS3 in the first quarter next year. That means if say 3,000,000 consoles are sold between them like last year the Xbox 360 will sell 2,000,000 and the PS3 1,000,000. That means that if the gap from this year is 8,000,000 between them, it will probably be greater than 9,000,000 before the start of the 2nd quarter.  I think Microsoft is sitting on the friendly side of a slippery slope. The further the lead increases over the PS3, the more the sales of the Xbox 360 will increase relative to the PS3. If Sony takes no action until Q3, the gap between them could reach well over 12 million consoles.

As for a point of no return? That depends on Sonys willingness and ability to increase sales and Microsofts aggressiveness. Remember Microsoft can afford to cut the price again if they sense they could drive Sony out of the market, and it would be economically viable for them to do so in the long term if they could. At this point, with inaction from both parties the point of no return has been reached. Overall it is still reasonable for Sony to right the ship, but the window for them to do so is closing rapidly. They do not have the luxury of a lead like Microsoft did so the earlier the can make their move the better the results for them. If they make no move by March/April then I would expect that they have resigned themselves to a 3rd place finish and will probably finish the generation 25 million consoles or more behind the Xbox 360.