| TheSource said: I'm still catching up on things (just got back), but KruzeS' numbers add up (using absolute value) to 92% difference between NPD across 7 platforms - which is a 13.14% difference from NPD (on average) per platform. Last month was 14%. The difference this month is numbers were both more and less accurate than last month. Frankly, given the data coverage Vgchartz has, you should only worry if the average discrepency starts increasing (since we are still adding new sources). In March the average discrepency was 2x what it is now. If the data keeps improving like it has for the past few months, it should dwindle to under 10% on average each month. At that point it should flatline as the rules of diminishing returns begins to catch up with us. I have yet yo compare software though.l |
See, the problem is it's easy to spin these discrepencies as decent, just like vgchartz does every month.
But when Vgchartz is off 20% for any particular console, and it could be either direction, any given month, the numbers just dont have any real value over educated guessing, because the average layperson could make a educated guess that would be just as close. For example, for 360 sales, Vgchartz could be +- 20%, that's a 40% range, and just by some basic guessing and previous months weekly sales rates from NPD as a baseline, I bet I can get closer than that!
Back to a little discussion of the numbers, what really beat VGC and other predictors (Pachter, who might be basing a lot on Vgchartz) the past month was that 360 held steady. Most got the PS3 increase pretty close, helped by Sony's "double at major retailers" comments. But most predictors showed 360 falling a lot, apparantly assuming PS3 sales took away 360 sales, and that didn't happen. The second major deviation was, Wii sales higher than everybody expected, which are simply people inability to predict when Nintendo will send a big shipment through.
