Madden-alysis

[johnlucas]

Lingyis said:
let's look at it this way:

wii60 owners: if i'm a big football fan, i'd go for the 360 version of madden. motion control not a big deal, extra features and crisp graphics more important. i also wouldn't care about the party modes; party-mode video game football almost seems contradictory. ditto for NBA, and possibly NHL and FIFA (not sure about controls). but for MLB, i'll probably get the wii version--motion controls add so much there.

wii ps2 owners: i'd go the the wii version. the choice is clear here.

wii ps3 owners: same logic for 360 applies.

ps2-360 or ps2-ps3 owners: the next gen version.

ps3-360 owners: the overlap is probably small. let's just say 50-50.


to get a better idea of just what Madden numbers tell you, you need to look at PS2-Wii comparisons. the makeup of those 2 separate console owners are much more likely to be similar.

PS2 install base: ~50 mln in americas. Wii ~ 4mln. ratio: 12.5:1. madden sales ratio: 546,000:57,000 ~ 9.6.

now assume all 360/ps3 owners own a PS2, and no overlap in 360/ps3 ownership. 360/ps3 ownership is around 10 mln. 50mln - 10mln, you have 40 mln. wii/ps2 overlap? say 1 mln (i.e. a quarter of wii owners own a ps2). you're down to 39 mln effective ps2 owners (i.e. those who will buy madden). wii/360 overlap: say 1/10 of wii install base (i.e. a 1/10th of wii owners own a 360), 400,000. effective wii owners: 3.6 mln.

39mln : 3.6 mln ~ 10.8.

the ratios 10.8 and 9.6 are very close. this also tells us that the difference in wii audience makeup and the ps2 audience makeup is not NEARLY as far as many people think.

in fact, it says that only about 10% of wii owners are those who WOULDN'T own a PS2.

i.e. only 10% of wii owners are truly people like soccer moms, old folks, and the likes.

there are some assumptions in the above number crunching that's worth a second look; but when it comes down to it, i do not believe "soccer mom" wii owners exceed 20% of wii buyers. and this is really the first case we take a truly insightful look at the wii buyer makeup.

you also get to look at HOW the ps2 market will be replaced by Wii and the 360/ps3.

Before I get started...Thanks ballsonyourchin for the shout-out. How's that for a creepy sentence?

I like your logic Lingyis. That's a fresh angle to look at it from. Overlapping console audience. I only counted solo owners not duo or trio owners.

Good point on party modes for football games possibly being redundant since playing football games are usually a party affair in the first place. Most sports games are like that come to think of it. The sports sims concentrate on the straight maingame action not the side modes like arcadey sports games do.

Those ratios you deduced paint a clearer picture. I don't know necessarily if those numbers absolutely tell the tale of Wii's audience makeup but it most probably signifies what is called the gamer's makeup. I hate that term "soccer mom" by the way. Sounds like some focus group "bullshoot" to me. Lindsay Naegle from the Simpsons musta came up with that one when she first came up with "synergy" and "proactive". I just hate that kind of talk! Blech!!

I think the new audience is unknown for the most part of what makes up Wii's total audience by percentage. It could very well be that Madden is just not interesting enough for the Wii buyers no matter what they put into it. Could be simply a case of lack of appeal regardless of our traditional viewpoints on hot games. I'm trying to break that mindset myself so as not to get to trapped into seeing certain games as the Holy Grail even though there are exceptions (Brawl! Where ARE you?!?!). I'm trying to understand the NEW system sellers (that Happy Squirrel doesn't believe in anymore) or rather the games that will consistently hover high on the charts not always looking toward the predictable categories.

Madden is a hot game obviously but maybe not so much on Wii systems at least not at the moment. I need to see how much Madden 07 on Wii sold so I can get some insight. If Wii sells like this for sustained period of time then another story will have to be told. XBox 360 may still have the lead with such a big headstart but could Wii slowly but surely catch it with those kinds of sales we see on DS like Mario Kart DS & Animal Crossing: Wild World among others? Will it be a lingerer rather than an exploder? If word gets out that the play experience is better on Wii rather than another than I think that may make the difference.

I can tell you from personal experience that I'm now interested in football games thanks to Wii. I wanted to test out Madden 07 to see how it would play. I'm not anywhere NEAR a football fan and I don't like and never liked football games outside of maybe the original NFL Blitzes long ago. Though not a fan I understand how football operates and what the downs mean and all that so football wouldn't be totally foreign to me and I could appreciate the gameplay. I may still buy to own both Madden 07 & 08 to check out how they play. I'd rename Michael Vick "Atomic Dog" on his jersey or something. Joking.

PS2 has one last big holiday season before it heads off to pasture. And with 360 it no longer has the distinction of most poorly put-together product . It's cheap, plentiful with the vast library and name recognition/familiarity. It will be replaced and I think you may be hitting on a point somewhere in there about how the PS2 audience will break down as most of the holdouts filter into the 7th gen systems.

One sports title I will have vested interest in seeing how it performs cross-platform is Fight Night.

John Lucas