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I think the PS3 has a good chance at passing the 360. As the price comes down, more and more big games like Killzone 2, GT5, and God of War 2 come out, and as blu-ray penetrates the market more, the PS3 will see sales go up. More PS3's were sold in 2008 than 2007, and more will be sold in 2009 than 2008, and more will be sold in 2010 than in 2009. The system is one Sony could ride for 7 or 8 years without a new system because of its technology.

 

Say Microsoft releases their next system late 2010 and it costs $500. The PS3 by then will be down to $250, maybe even down to $200. Sony coud ride for two or three years with a relatively cheap system and be really successful. I really think that by 2016, even though Sony will have a new console out for a few years by then, the PS3 will be still be relavent in some form in the market. There will be no comparison between the logevity of the 360 and that of the PS3.