A hardware shipment forecast is not a projection of sales. The forecast is more of a projection of production, and shipment down the line. Which does not necessarily mean to a retailer either. The finished products could find themselves stockpiled in a distribution center. Technically these things can all take place within Sony internally regardless of retail demand.
Sony could even have good reason to overproduce. Perhaps they want to max out production on some products so that they may discontinue production. They may have produced too few units, and while a product may not be supply constrained they may wish to have a better margin. They may be preparing to retool the plants so they must use up the available components for the old model.
I think Sony can make these goals, because they haven't had any meaningful production short falls I can remember in the last year. Whether their is demand in the chain for all these units. Well I agree with most of you both the PSP and PS2 are well in excess of public demand. However I think Sony is probably padding the PS2 production so they can discontinue manufacture in the upcoming year. So I see no problem with the over production there it may cost them a bit more up front, but over the coarse of two years they will save a lot on production costs.
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