Will the Wii ever pass up the DS?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Khuutra said:
That is a good post, Oyvoyvoyv. I would not have thought to grasp at the idea that the Wii might actually and literally saturate the market.

So how high do you see the Wii topping out?

I don't really know. I don't think it will beat the Ps2 by much.

- It is looking like it is going to sell ~ 8M less than the Ps2 did in Japan.

- Ps2 had a high failure rate, and many re-purchases.

 

Still, the Wii has some huge demand. I believe it will sell out next year, so it will be at ~ 73M just then.

With pretty much in the middle of 1/3 and 1/4 people buying the Wii at 250$, how many more won't buy it at 199 or 149?

I think what we might see with the Wii, is that more and more titles directed at the public will be 29.99, or even 19.99 at launch.

For many people, the Wii will be a DVD player, in the sense that when they're bored, they might buy a game instead of a movie. I'm not sure how big this will be, but it will certainly happen to some degree, and Nintendo might publish it a bit in that direction.

This is likely to be extra big in Europe, as it is so big that movies and such have troubles with shipments and such (for buying online).

So, I'll say that in Spain + UK+ Germany + Italy +  France could see close to a 50% in house total. That is ~ 50M just there. The rest of Europe should probably be at around 10M (Ps2 had 10M), if not a little more. Then there's around 10M from the rest of "others". Ps2 had 7.5M there, but Wii seems to be catching on in Asia, and also Australia.

So without Americas, I see it at ~ 85M.

 

Mexico is seeing a huge growth in video game consoles.  It is likely to see a 50% growth, but that isn't a lot. It is just a 1-2M for Wii.

For USA + Canada, I see a similar install rate. Somewhere around 50%, if not a bit above. So ~ 60M from there, with perhaps 5M from Mexico + south America.

 

So overall, I see it in the 150-170M range. The only way it could break out of this range, is if it really catches on in Asia. China is seeing a huge growth. Will Wii catch on there? It is doubtful, but China is so large that if it does, that could easily mean another 20M. That is why that my range is rather than 140-160M 150-170M.

 

 

 PS: Thanks for the compliment on my previous post. I was afraid that it didn't really connect in places, but it appears it did.