The music CD format was around for (roughly) a decade before the average consumer saw enough of a benefit from CD to (really) care; even then they didn't fully abandon the cassette tape for years because the cassette had several benefits that the CD could not replicate. At the same time, Laserdisc never really caught on as a replacement to VHS inspite of having a similar advantage as CDs had (over cassette tapes).
Blu-Ray falls into odd company being that it is a disc format that is replacing a disc format with (almost) no benefit over the previous format besides quality and capacity. There are obvious comparisons to SACD and DVD-A which both were highly praised by audiophiles while consumers ignored these formats and (eventually) adoped MP3 which offered lower quality audio than the currently popular CD format. This doesn't translate to Blu-Ray being doomed, but I do think that Blu-Ray has an uphill battle to prove its value to consumers before they will accept it like they accepted DVD or CD.
