When will the DS pass the Psx/Ps2?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

leo-j said:
Not the ps2, but it should pass the psx

 

 I guess you are talking about for 2009 only.

Anyway, my view on it.

 

Passing the Psx is piece of cake. It is at 102.5M.

 

The DS is currently at 89M (well, 88.95M).

For the end of 08, it would be at 96M, if it sold as much as in 07.

It looks like it will sell more though. There are 5 weeks, and for the breakdown in 07, it is like this.

Americas: 2852K = 570K

Japan: 1200K = 240K

Others: 2911K = 582K

Now normally, I wouldn't add that weekly, as it is holiday, and some weeks are spiked. I have them now, because I am proving a point.

DS sold 780K last week in Others. It is for the year so far up 50%, and it looks like this should stick during the holidays. ~ 4250K is a solid bet for Others. 4-4.5M

In Americas, DS is up 20% YoY. Not a lot, and the YoY increase has been slowing down lately. The DS also had an extraordinary holiday last year, so putting this toghether, I think 2.75-3.25M is the range, so ~ 3M.

DS is down 50% in Japan. Still, if you look at sales since November (when DSi launched in 08), it is actually up. Obviously, this is flawed due to the launch boost, but it is still up.

Another thing worth noting about Japan is that Nintendo esimated 1.2-1.5M for DSi. It has sold ~ 430K now, and 70K DSL (VGC time), so it should have 800K-1.1M sales kicking from DSi, along with a possible 150-250K DSL. So I'd say it seems probable that Japan should manage to sell as much as it did in 07. So ~ 1.1-1.3M

 

Overall, this means I expect DS to be at ~ 97.5M by the end of the year. This means that DS sold ~ 33-34M for 2008.

 

Now you may wonder why I bothered doing the totals for 2008, when it is rather 2009 that is interesting. Case is, whether DS sold 29M or 33.5M for 2008 is very relevant for the further prediction.

 

Next year, DSi is launched in Others. As sales of DSL will obviously drop a bit (DS is in its 5th year after all), I think that DSi might even out that drop off. It is also very likely that DSL will see a price drop late 09, meaning that DSL should also get a sales boost. Overall, I see no reason that the DS should sell any less than 16-18M in Others for 2009 (it is likely to have sold 18M in 08). That is even being a shy lower than I really think.

For Americas, it could get a small drop. It is only up 20% YoY (50% Others), and with the recession comming in, it isn't sure the DSi will do that great. Still, if DSi doesn't replace DSL, we are still likely to see a price drop sometimes late in 09, and that could mean some increased DSL prices. Overall, pretty tough to tell, considering that DSi might not be a success due to the possible recession. So a bit bigger range here, 9-13M (~ 11.5-12M for 08).

Japan is actually going to see a YoY increase in 09! Who would have thought a console would see a bigger year in its 4th or 5th year than the previous, huh? Oh wait? The PsP did that this year... Okay, anyway. DS has been really stale this year. DSi and a certain price cut for DSL (here it might come early on) should press sales up a lot. I'm guessing somewhere in between of 07 and 08, but closer to 08, so ~ 5-6M (4.5M 08, 7.5M 07).

 

So overall I expect a very low drop, with DS selling 31-34M next year, with it being pretty much exactly as big as in 08. So I see the DS being at 127-130M by the end of 09.

 

As for Ps2, it is seeing only a 15-25% drop from 07 to 08 (9.8M to ~ 8-8.25M). Still, with the 360 being at as low a price as it is now, I could see it having a larger drop next year, more ala 35-40%. So This means I see it at ~ 124.25-124.5M for end of 08, and slightly below 130M (but probably above 129M) for end of 09.

 

So, I predict that DS will pass Ps2 in December 2009 or January 2010.