Blue Ray is dead? (Article)

[nintendo_fanboy]

Listen people, I think I am quite independent in that war because I'm just a "mass consumer" in this segment, so it might be interesting for you to hear what I think about it.

First, stop ditching the poster of the article, I think it is interesting, it may be a bit outdated and it may be a bit biased, but it's definitely interesting to discuss it.

I really don't expect that Blu-Ray will ever reach the Mass Market completely, and there are several reasons for me to think so. I might be completely wrong and proven wrong in just a couple of years or months, but this is my opinion, and these are my reasons to think so.
-First, consumers want big improvements. They want big steps like from VHS to DVD or from LP to CD. It makes a real difference if something is analogue or digital, but having a better picture is only to a certain amount a big improvement, and this leads me to my next point. But before, I want to say that being able to download movies would definitely be a big step, but it might also have to many disadvantages.
-The mass market consumer is completely happy with the picture he gets out of a DVD. It's the same as with graphics of video games: Last Gen graphics were "good enough" for the mass market, and so are the pictures a DVD can produce. As long as people aren't watching HD movies, they don't want to watch them, so it's a bit of an infinite circle. I for myself have a HD-TV, but I really don't care.
-DVD is too new still. It isn't too long ago that most people switched from VHS to DVD. I mean, 10 years ago DVD was still small, and even 10 years isn't long. Now think about the people that bought a DVD player in 2003, or even in 2005 only. They won't switch that fast again, they are used to longer lifecircles.

I think those three reasons will stop BD from having mass market success for quite a while, and the pricing doesn't help either, of course. If you think different, that's no problem for me.

Another point I want to add: Stop attacking people that dislike BD and are writing against it in a gentle way. Arguments like: "Ignore BD if you don't like it" or "If BD gets popular, DVD will get cheaper, so everyone is happy" are just stupid. You should all know that there is not enough space for more than one media format, and if BD succeeds, DVD will die. Of course, DVD's will be cheaper first, but after a while, new movies won't be released anymore on DVD. Or is anyone really arguing that Quantum of Solace will release on VHS soon?