From the looks of this thread, i don't think a Newton release holds much "gravity"...
Horrible puns aside, lets try to think what could make newton a success. First, it would need big games to go with. MS already spend it's Halo title and two Gears of Wars games on the 360, so a new game would had to be created from scratch. A sports game, would be accused as a copy of Wii sports, but strong licencing would overcome that. Problem is MS last sports game was Golf Simulator on Windows.No expierience there.
So we return to big franchises like Halo or new games.Problem is that the Halo-like fanbase would be feeling betrayed by the change in controls since they would require the game to be optimized on motion controlls. (A half-assed optional control scheme would be worth to nothing to validate change from dual analog.) Reactions like "Halo is ruined forever" would pop up. Nintendo had simillar issues with Metroid making the jump to 3d or Celda(not a typo). Still, the Halo(or whatever MS comes up with) brand is massive and will probably move the accessory.
Now it comes to this. You sold millions of Newton with your app (it was buldled with it), but if you chose a FPS to go with it (the most logical choice for 360) you preached to the normal crowd of Microsoft. People that bought it were the usual MS supporters that would have bought the game even with normal analog control. You didn't create a new genre that would attract the people that just got into gaming, or the more mature crowd that like simple games that drive the Wii sales. So microsoft sports is a nesessity i guess. Wii series hold their success in the combination of simple motions, the Mii personas and Multiplayer on the same room, in difference with MS, who favor online as strategy. Lets say they use the avatars to the same purpose. A copied idea, for a copied game. So microsoft casual sports series are born.
Ok, it's all good, and microsoft can jump over the trap of "selling out to casuals" or "blatant pliagiarism". Still, can anyone explain why the i-pod was favorited over the zune? Because of recongnizability. Nintendo is synonym now with "motion", as "playstation" was to videogames in general use of the public. They came first, they were a huge success and created a new market. If MS used avatars for in game representation, why move from the wii from the first place, if the selling point is simple cutesy graphics and motion? Nothing new here in comparison to Wii. If the graphics were more realistic, the Wii proved that simplicity works best on the new market, so MS would only sell to the core gamers, who would use the HD as a raft to the alleged "sellout". No new sales for MS, kids and casual adults don't care for graphics.
Even though the accessory could be a mild success if the games it offered were high quality titles, Games based in gimmicks that are not sold with the console are very few. Guitar Hero's guitar is useless for any other games. Wii balance board just started to get support from third parties, while nintendo has only 2 titles for it. So lifetime titles for newton would come to what, 20 titles with 3rd party support? Even if it brought a tsunami of minigames with it, since they are more succesfull on the Wii as proved by sales, why would companies want to produce that? A cheaper game with great sales is prefferable to a high end graphics with uncertain ones.
So IMO, casuals stay with nintendo, core retain the analog control, and everyone is happy.
tl;dr Newton is not going to be a threat to Ninty. (Quote me on that for crow eating threads)
"You won't find Adobe here in Nairobi"
