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I'll add that I'm pretty sure now that there will be no shift from Wii to HD.
There would be if eveything else was equal. But it's not the case at all.
Before my PS3 BRD player died, I noticed that HD definitely makes no sense as an incentive to buy sth. HD is just an improvement, but add very little value to sth.
The more I was looking at HD content, the more I was convinced that it was useless.
I'm now nearly ready to go back buying DVD. The only HD content I bought were exclusives. Meaning their value was NOT in beeing HD.

HD is a plus if everything else is equal, but apart from that it's completely useless, and doesn't give enough value to make people shift focus.

The only thing that will shift users are true values, like exclusive content on HD consoles. The problem being that it comes from developers/publishers.
Now, the problem is, will the Wii or the publishers fall first? Because the publishers are the one that started their war of attrition on Nintendo. Now, everything seems to be pointing to the fact that the publishers are falling first, left and right.
Nintendo still enjoys everything, with the Wii and DS. The SD market is actually far higher, as it includes at least the Wii and the DS, and it's selling far more games.