^^^41m by end of year? Gee, don't go too far out on that limb!
I think VGC's Black Friday estimates were too high. It sounds like they were too high for 360 ( http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=51283&page=1 ); I'd guess they were too high across the board.
Ie, it will probably be a little short.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.