I still call it nearly 50-50, Sony seems to have the advantage during the non-holiday quarters when people generally buy for themselves and MS during the holiday quarter when people are stingy and buying presents.
Earlier this year I would have called it for Sony taking second but with the financial crisis (likely to make people more stingy) has swung it back and its pretty much even. Perhaps slight advantage to Microsoft as they have the momentum.
To be honest I think its Japan thats hurting Sony the most, MS was never meant to do well there but Sony was. Now that Sony isn't doing well there, the Japanese developers (who matter much more to the market than the Japanese console sales themselves) are starting to swing towards 360/PS3 multiplat or Wii exclusive.
