The Road to 50%

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Oyvoyvoyv said:

My estimate for end of the year market share (weekly sales are here: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=45704&start=50).

Wii: 45.52M - 48.5%

Ps3: 21.67M - 23.1%

X360: 26.64M - 28.3%

 

The gap will then be 2.79M

 

I see the Wii selling 2M-2.2M/month in Q1 next year, which is ~ 484K weekly. I see the HD consoles dipping as most consoles would, down to ~ 180K for Ps3 and 150K for X360. 330K total.

 

So I see it taking 18 weeks or so (into 2009) for Wii to achieve 50% market share, and it happening roughly at the start of May.

 

Note: This is not a purely statistical post, and it has a few personal estimates that are not totally proof backed. No cakes were hurt during the making of this Barack Obama ad.

Whoa! This is less than a month ago. Shocking really.

So, what I believe now.

 

Wii: 45-46M - 49.1-49.7%

Ps3: 20M - 21.8-22%

X360: 26.5M - 29-29.2%

 

So reaching 50% looks A LOT better now than it did 1 month ago (it looks like it will reach it in less than 2/3 the time I expected).