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@AKA pooperscooper

Have you made any allowances for price point depletion within your analysis. The concept being that the console has not moved from last years price point, and may have exhausted a sizable proportion of that potential market last year. Basically there being a set number of consumers willing to pay that price in the name of gift giving, and that last year the PS3 accumulated a large percentage of that market. Leaving this years market more diminutive.

The of coarse coming before two other relevant facts. The first of which being that holiday spending is averaging less this year then last year due to a global economy in recession. Further more one of the key facets of the device. The ability to play high definition media has been usurped by much less expensive stand alone players. Meaning potential purchasers for movie watching purposes only will be far less disposed to purchase a PS3. We must remember the PS3 for the past two holiday seasons has been a dual purpose product. Often enough being sold to two different markets.

I am finding it hard to imagine that the PS3 will actually sell much better then it did last year given all of the factors leveled against it. Basically being that their will be less consumers for the product to sell to.