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Crazymann on 27 November 2008
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Smashchu2 said:
MikeB said:

With regard to point 2, the PS2 is still selling well so the previous generation isn't over yet. Likewise I think this generation of console's will last very long (nomatter if another console may be discontinued earlier). The 360 could have been discontinued its first year before the Wii launched, could anyone really claim victory for the 360 if that happened?

The problem is the nature of how console cycles work.

The console who is doing the best (right now, the Wii) will stay on the shelves the longest. The NES coninued long after the SNES, as did the PS1 and PS2. The runner ups usually have shorter life spans. Sega always released very early. The Dreamcast came out really quickly.

Why does it work this way? As the generation drags on, fewer and fewer games are made for those systems. People will buy them less as fewer people were interested in the system. The developers and publishers will move to the first place console leaving the others with less and less. Buyers loss interest. The reason Sony and Microsoft will have to make a new console is to sell units. The PS3 and 360 will eventually peak. All systems will (the ODS is sort of doing this in Japan). Weaker systems will less adoption will have to do this sooner as they peak much sooner. Natually, it has to be.

The 360 will have a better chance of staying on the shelves thanks to great third party support. It will not be able to outlive the Wii however. The system has lots of interest in it and, eventually, will be what developers are making their games on (a shift as been moving towards this). Sony has not gotten the same developer support the 360 has. In fact, one could say it has started to peak out as the 360, once again, beats it in sales.

 

That was true in the past, but developers will look at combined HD system sales (PS360 multiplats) and that will alter the "normal" flow of things.  This generation cannot be pidgeonholed by past trends because of the Wii v.s. HD phenomenon. 

In the end, I think PS360 will be close (with one having a slight edge over the other) and the market for both of them will keep them viable for software development.  There is no denying that the tech levels of the Wii v.s. PS360 are different enough that games cannot be ported from HD to Wii without alteration.  Thus the combined market of PS360 will play out differently than the "losers" of the past generation. 

Really, all 3 companies could come out ahead when the smoke clears - though Sony is looking more and more dubious.  Sony should NOT lower the price and concentrate on PROFIT and funding the next R&D cycle. 

Then again, its easy for me to say that since I already have my PS3.