HappySqurriel on 28 March 2007
Stromprophet said:
For TV? No. You need to go back to the 90s. A lot of TVs cost more than 300 dollars and people bought them. They don't consider a TV a minor purchase. It's equivalent to a sizable expenditure.
I am saying 50%+ for the year, not penetration. It's not spin, it's been reported several times if you simply watch news stations, or CNBC when they talk about the price reductions of HDTVs which are expected to drop another 30% or more this year.
Well, HDTV capable TVs representing 50% of the market in a given year is a reasonable sign there are a few things to consider; a large portion of HDTV sales will be to homes which already have a HDTV, and not all game systems end up being hooked up to the 'Main' TV in the house.
Before Christmas a co-worker of mine was replacing the TV in each of his children's rooms with a HDTV because it could work as both a TV and a monitor. I also still know lots of people who plan to replace the HDTV they bought in 2001-2003 because they only support component rather than HDMI input. These sales represent an increase in HDTV sales but do not really represent an increase in HDTV market penetration.
The other thing to consider is that in any house with children (or a wife/girlfriend) there is a good possibility that the gaming system will be hooked up to a tv that is in the den rather than the large living room TV; at the same time you would expect that the large living room TV is more likely to be a HDTV than the Den TV.
Now, in 2009 or 2010 you probably won't be able to buy standard definition tvs anymore so at that point HDTV will rapidly eat away at the remaining market share of Standard Definition television; until that point I doubt that HDTV will be available in the majority of homes in the developed world.