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There are some solid facts that are being ignored in this question.

1. The majority of consumers have a set price point at which they will consider buying a console. There is a reason the PS2 is still selling so well. No matter what games are offered or functionality there is this fundamental nature of the market will not change. The majority of consumers feel that the standard acceptable price is around two hundred dollars. Even at that point it is considered more of a luxury item. So if you say that holds true for seventy percent of gamers. Then when you get around six hundred dollars your looking at something like ninety percent of established gamers will not buy the product.

Many posters ignore that simple fact. Due to the high price of the PS3 console by default the massive majority of gamers cannot consider the purchase. Everyone would love a mansion, but very few can afford it. Most people would love to buy high end electronics, but most have to settle for less. The price handicaps the console. Even the price of the games handicaps the console. Microsoft has been around in this generation long enough to have bargain priced games. Nintendo is fully backwards compatible, and their games are less expensive to begin with.

2. Hype is a speculative thing. However most would agree that this holiday season the hype is not with the PS3. Even with incredible hype last year the console had abysmal sales. The holiday shipment did not even sell out. Nintendo still has ridiculous hype consumers watched all year as it stayed sold out. Microsoft is going to have a few major game campaigns and cross promotions. I am not sure what Sony can do to get consumers excited. Hell they have down played this holiday season.

3. Sony is out of position. They have had a solid year of negative publicity. There is little doubt that educated consumers would be the go to consumer this season. The early adopters as it were. Everything this year will make those consumers cautious. They also have two other valid selections. A cheaper high end system that has a more robust library, or a low end cheap system with a highly finished first party lineup. Microsoft offers a online plan for competitive play, and Nintendo offers family friendly controls. Game addicts love to share their passion.

4. Technology is also of note or more specifically the ignorance of technology. There is not a single console manufacturer that has made a concerted effort to define technology for the consumer. We abandoned numbers a long time ago. The only numbers that we are given now is hard drive capacity, and disc capacity. So the ignorant consumer has little guidance. Throw terminology at them, and watch the eyes glass over. Say next gen console, and they will think all consoles are relatively equal. Hell the BluRay player actually hurts Sony here. The consumer thinks the console cost more simply, because it has a high def movie player in it. Thats not good especially if they do not have a high def television. Does anyone know can a BluRay player actually play DVDs?

I would like to see the race liven up, but if your betting on a PS3 surge you need to have some rational explanation. How will Sony counteract the negative press, and the prohibitive price point of their console. How can they tout the technology to the public. We have traded on name so long that the technology got lost. How can they differentiate themselves so they put themselves in a better position. This console definitely needs a catch phrase, or a good gimmick. How will Sony create excitement their add campaigns have gone over like lead balloons at best, at worst
they have caused controversy. Insinuating riots, decapitated goats, and surrealistic adds do not create desire to buy a console. A women on the can, a creepy baby doll, and a guy that baths armed just confuse me.

You need a better reason then a unwarranted come back, or these two or three games will make the difference. Everyone has two or three games. Very few gamers buy consoles for a specific game. Look at the N64 for guidance. Over a dozen unique games that hit solid tens in many review charts. Half a dozen of those came within the first year, and that console had a reasonable low price.

Sony needs to do something different, and if you speculate that Sony is going to make a major comeback you need to speculate a realistic how it will happen. What do you think Sony is going to do this holiday season that can turn things around. Getting tired of soft logic. I will entertain any notion as long as you have a theory of some kind. However the this game, or magical come back theory is proven nonsense.