Sony defeated?

[Lord N]

Dodece said:
@Lord N

Excerpt from E3 this year. July 15-17

When it comes to Xbox Live, a new member joins every 5 seconds, according to Microsoft, which now has over 12 million members, who have between them spent "more than one billion dollars on Xbox Live."

Since which time Microsoft has added an additional 3,271,058 in console sales. Doing the math I reach over sixty percent attach rate. Were this rate to hold true. The 360 would need a install base of 33,000,000 consoles to achieve one billion dollars gross from fees alone. Before all other revenue streams.

Absurd I do not think so. I think Microsoft can reach 33 million units sold by next holiday season. That is all of ten million units, and Microsoft moved over three million units in the last five months. Basically they are moving an average of 650,000 units monthly that makes eight million units, and that is not even including all of the lower price point, or a holiday surge. Ten million units is fairly certain.

Come back with numbers not opinions. I want to see some numbers as to why my calculations are absurd.

 

1) Revenue does not mean profits. I think you've been coming here long enough to know this. Furthermore, all of those subscriptions are not gold accounts. Some are indeed silver accounts. The most profit MS has ever seen in a single quarter was 4th Q 2007, which saw about $315 million. That was nearly wiped out with their $200 miilion loss for Q2 2008(which was most likely from all the money they fronted for FFXIII).

2) My comment regarding absurdity has nothing to do with calculations, it had to do with your statement that MS's strategy is fool proof, something that you only supported with banter about its online service, which I've already rebutted. I've already given plenty of reasons as to why it's not fool proof.

The 360's most profitable quarter outside of the holiday season was about $150 million, and yet, you are stating that somehow it's going to turn a profit of $1BN/yr in its next fiscal year. What I want to see is your reasoning behind this that involves something other than their online service.