| dbot said: I will give this a shot. It is becoming apparent to me that Sony will be moving on from the PS3 much sooner than previously thought. I know they said they have a 10 year lifecycle, but that was when they were the dominant console. They also said they would have 100% backward compatibility. I do not think the next version of consoles will push the technology nearly as much as the HD generation did. Sony and Microsoft will focus on a business plan similar to Nintendo's plan. The old console business model, selling consoles at a loss to push software, does not work anymore. Sony will release an incremental upgrade to the PS3 that will allow for complete 100% compatability with the PS3. They will replace the PS3 with the PS3.5. They will still encourage software vendors to target the PS3 as their lead system, but will encourage them to offer high end settings in the game to support the better technology of the PS3.5. This will be similar to the pc model of offering different modes based upon hardware capabilities. This new version of the PS3 will contain the same cell architecture that is currently in the PS3 but will be much faster. Also, the new video chip will be based on the current ps3 gpu. Both of these items are absolutely necessary to maintain 100% forward/backward compatibility. The ram will still be split between cpu and gpu with 1 gig of ram for each. The PS3.5 will have a 6x Blu-ray drive. The base PS3 will ship without a hard drive. The standard bundle will include a hard drive. You will be able to upgrade or add any standard 2.5 sata drive like you can in the PS3. Sony will introduce the dual shock 4 which will be the break away controller that we have seen before with much better motion sensitivity than the sixaxis. Misc: External power brick, no slot loading drive, 1 memory card reader, bluetooth, built in wifi/gigabit ethernet. This version will be released at $250 in 2010.
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I agree with this assessment, except I think the hard drive will still be standard. With some third parties switching to PS3 as the lead platform, it could work in their advantage to keep the cell. Also, developers have spent lots of money investing in cell dev. It will probably sell exactly at break-even point, so software can deliver the profit.
Also, I see Sony focusing on getting a good initial line-up of games that will grab people immediately. They don't want the "no games" stigma that they still have to fight to this day, even with a great line-up. They will probably have a shooter done by Insomniac, a LBP-like game done by MM, a super casual game, and a jRPG probably done by Level 5.
If the price of BD recorders comes down in price, I can definitely see that being included to capture more of the Japanese audience that want to record HD content. BD recorders are taking off in a big way and you can get BD-R discs for $2-$3 each here.
"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY." --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials
Conservatives: Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.
