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A somewhat decent way to determine the number of ACTIVE psn accounts linked directly to the ps3 would be to take a hit game/popular online heavy game and multiply their peak member count online and multiple that by that game's attach rate.  If you do this with a nice sampling of games and find an average you will have a close idea of ACTIVE PS3 PSN accounts.  Anyone up for the challenge?

 

Edit:  I understand this can gimp numbers by leaving people out who use the PSN Store for movies but any better ideas?