Microsoft could be the one to beat next generation. Their 3rd generation of consoles is the perfect storm of opportunity for them to play to every strength they have, and if they win they will never lose again. Microsoft has the chance to both redefine what a console is, and weave the digital web between all the devices in a household to disrupt the very notion of how people interface with computer systems.
Nintendo forged a path for others to follow by bringing a next generation interface into the homes of people worldwide. The interface challenge that Nintendo overcame as we know removed a lot of barriers preventing consoles from reaching a wider audience, but it also removed a lot of the barriers preventing consoles from becoming useful to people outside of games. Essentially the lesson one could take from Wii-Fit is that if you bring something useful into people’s lives they will jump in with both feet.
This is where Nintendo trail blazing meets Microsoft’s strengths. There is no other company in the console business that can make a console useful to people outside of games better than Microsoft. The research and development Microsoft has conducted in fields such as voice recognition, gesture recognition and new interface technologies can be directly implemented by a console to both make it easier to use and allow them to leverage new ways to use the existing technology of the console to make peoples lives better.
Disrupt the old empire! The consoles making PCs obsolete.
The keyboard and Mouse, the unchanging interface between man and computers since computers began. The perfect answer to all your computing needs, until you decide to leave the desk. Between asking your LCD TV for an omelette recipe, and leaving the kitchen, washing your hands and finding a computer to Google and print out the results the obvious choice is neat and easy, like people want them to be.
The largest untapped market for consoles is people who don’t even want to play games. Games are just one form of software you can sell to people, and by selling a much wider variety of software Microsoft can tap a market many magnitudes of size larger than Nintendo could ever dream of. Games for many people fit into their lifestyle and giving them an opportunity to play games when they otherwise couldn’t is a recipe for increased participation. Like with my Kitchen example, if you’re waiting for the oven to pre-heat you’ve got time to play a quick game or two.
If you look at the definition of a console in a computer sense it is merely a terminal to a server hidden elsewhere. In my opinion, that’s what the next Xbox generation will be about. Increasingly as devices are becoming more connected, the need for duplication of high performance computing diminishes. For that reason, if you can render a game and transmit the results wirelessly to an LCD TV all you need on the local side would be a camera, microphone and a wireless network adapter to work it into your network.
Summary.
The hardware is almost irrelevant; the next generation will be defined more by the software which runs on it and the user interface. Realistically if they are looking to create a mass market device, the dual analogue stick interface is dead to them. Even the control scheme for the Xbox 360 is dead, the hardware can live on and by the time the next generation comes about the internals should be so cheap they can use it for almost anything.
They will look to expand their online content by making digital music, movies and games available from their Xbox Live service. The “dvd player” in the bedroom for this type of content is the wireless terminal which I discussed earlier and they will expand upon this by leveraging voice and gesture recognition to allow a much greater variety of software to run on it. Essentially its all about making it simple and useful to add value to their complete offering.
I'm not proposing that the game focus is dead to them. By focusing on the broadest market possible you give yourself the best chance to give the most people a reason to buy your product. Games on PC don't suffer because of the Office/Internet/Email focus that most people have with PCs and games shouldn't suffer either in this scenario. Between education, games, multimedia applications, and useful functionality like emails you can encompass the widest possible market.
Im not saying that the above will definately happen. Microsoft is in a unique position to redefine the roles of both the home computer and consoles and create the digital future thats been dreamed about in Science fiction for over 30 years. Essentially im proposing that Microsoft will do what they always feared Sony would do to their Windows monopoly. Because they are in a position of strength from windows they will take it even further than anyone had dreamt or feared and in the end if they are successful it is only because they have convinced more people than anyone else that they deserve the money and sales more.
Tease.
