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Didn't Microsoft also have a year headstart, so a year with no competition, and it's still only got 1 million ahead of the Xbox (which, when released was competing with the PS2 and Gamecube).

If it wasn't for Gears of War, I'd reckon that the 360 would currently be selling less than the Xbox was at this point in time.

I think it's pretty obvious that Microsoft would gain marketshare on the 360, and will continue to do so on the next iteration of the Xbox franchise.