The big question that can't be answered for several more years is whether the 360 is breaking out of the Xbox owner base. The 360 sold faster than the Xbox in its first year (when it was alone and already had an established brand) but is now below its last year sales and is trending lower. The price cut may change that but we won't know for a few months.
The current percentages are hard to interpret since they could be a harbinger of the 360 taking a much bigger share of the market with its one year lead or they could be an ephemeral result of launching first and selling through its Xbox userbase quicker. As an example I think we can all agree that the 360's Oct, 2006 100% marketshare was no indicator of where its final market share would be. Only 9 months later it is still isn't a good indicator.
That won't stop us from predicting and arguing of course. My own guess is that the 360 will barely manage the Xbox's share in the Japan and Europe. There may be a small bump in the US but I think most of the 360's growth will be from the natural growth of the video game market. I expect the 360 to end around 30-35 million which would be a 25-45% increase but the market share would see a smaller bump up from 16% to 17-18%.
Of course there are many things that could change future sales. Must have games, price cuts, market shifts, etc. At least at the moment no system seems to dominate in the game category, even with price cuts the 360 will be well above the Wii and most systems are purchased under $180, and the reliability issue could be a major negative when less dedicated 360 owners start playing Halo 3/Madden 08/GTAIV, etc in earnest and their system breaks on them.
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