the ps3 sold around 2.8 million consoles in the same period last year, with much fewer games.
this year, they have a lot more games, but the economy is in the mudhole. so despite all the new games, i doubt they can reach 20 million without some kind of government intervention to suddenly soothe the economy.
i predict they will get to 19 million+, the ceiling probably would be 19.5 million.