@Kantor... I take it from your reply that you must think the combined PS3 and 360 total is going to come close to what last gens 3 consoles managed? (or at least PS2+XB) which is laughable to say the least.
Combined the PS3 and 360 might just manage to exceed 100 million, but in the end the 6th gen will equal almost 200 million (minus 20-30 million if you excluded GC and or Dreamcast)
It is certainly not hard to believe a 6th of PS2 owners bought a Wii.... we are already 2 years into this generation after all. A time which last gen (aligning region launches) about 31 million PS2s had been sold.... which is 10 million more than my estimate puts PS2-->Wii pick up
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In late Summer 2007 Nintendo put out some information saying that 95% of current Wii owners still owned or had owned a 6th gen console.... so just 5% of the sales at the time (5% about 12 million) were from gamers who had skipped gen 6 or past PC gamers, plus a some new gamers.
Given the low pick-up from new gamers at that point, 8-9 months after release, do you seriously believe that it has changed so drastically that since then, 80% have been new gamers? (if you work it out that should bring the total to around 55-60% like you guessed)
Yes more new gamers are being brought in to play on the Wii, but most of them are using Wii's bought by people who owned previous consoles.
