And so...the 360 Won in North America this gen....whats for sony now?

[Dodece]

The reality is that we are now three years into this generation. I am sorry PS3 loyalists, but your team showed up late to the game. That had its advantages and disadvantages. They let Microsoft have a head start so they could bring a more powerful machine to market. They opted for strength over speed. That said a generation is typically five to six years long. So with all the consoles on the same field of play we can say the generation is half over now.

That means the trends are established, and not particularly likely to have massive swings in sales values. That means in North America the contest really is settled between the high definition consoles. Microsoft has outsold the PS3 by two to one, and has a lead of very nearly seven million. Further more the 360 is outselling the PS3 as we speak. So if we assume that the rest of this year pans out. The PS3 will need to outsell the 360 by a two to one margin for over three years just to tie out. Most rational posters agree that is not realistic.

For the PS3 to have any chance of usurping the 360s position a number of unlikely things must occur. Sony must drastically reduce their price. The Wii must collapse thus freeing up the off gamer group. The 360 must develop a stigma far worse then the ring of death. These things all need to happen for the PS3 to crawl ahead of the 360 before the generation comes to a close. That is less then a one percent possibility so 360 will defeat Sony in North America that is a fact.

The only accomplishment that should matter to Sony in North America is their percentage of market share. Right now they comprise less then eighteen percent of the console market, and they comprise sixteen percent of software sales in regards to the PS3. Those numbers must be maintained, and they most certainly cannot afford to slip. Retailers have a limit to their tolerance, and more to the point performance in the previous generation dictates where you start in the next generation.

Right now the PS3 is performing on par with the original Xbox and its truncated life span, and the GameCube. What should terrify any loyalist is that the PS3 can actually go comparatively lower. This past week the PS3 carried just a little over thirteen percent of the market, and with a poor economy on the card through the new year the PS3 may dance around ten percent. No the question is not whether the console can win. The question is can Sony get through this generation with their skin intact.

You will have a hard time convincing a retailer to give your next console a star billing if your previous carried less then fifteen percent of the previous generations market. The default logic is that you should get less then fifteen percent of shelf space. A great many of you are right when you say it isn't over yet. Right now Sony would be happy to have it over. The way things are going it could actually get much worse for them.