c0rd on 20 November 2008
2011 is 3 years from now. The 360 will be on its 6th holiday season (7th including launch), so I highly doubt it would be selling much by then. That's one nice incentive to release a new console...
By 2012, the 360 will be 7 years old. No console since the NES (in Japan) has ever reached this age without a successor. That's as old as the GC/Xbox is now. Also, losing consoles don't last as long as the leaders. I think 2012 is the absolute latest for a Microsoft console, with 2011 being more likely.
