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If this gen started 2004 (PSP/DS), I can see next gen starting with Sony's next handheld at 2010. 2009 is still too early.

If we're talking about home consoles, I'd lean towards a 2011 console from Microsoft. By then it will have been 6 years since the 360 released, which is a long period of time. Releasing a console 2012 would be the longest console gap since the NES (I think), so I'm skeptical about it. The 360 won't be selling much 3 years from now, 4 years is really pushing it.