| RolStoppable said: I think the Wii has to outsell the PS3/360 combined to lure 3rd parties. Until it hasn't done that some or most 3rd party publishers still may think that it could be a fad and it's safer to make the big established franchise sequels for the HD consoles. If the Wii achieves the dominant position in this generation they will be pretty much forced to make their big games for the Wii which will most likely result in exclusives since porting games between Wii and 360/PS3 simply doesn't work well. These games won't show up before 2009 though, since a lot of big games are still in development for 360/PS3. Biggest userbase combined with lowest development costs = maximum profits. As for the question whether the Wii will outsell the 360 and PS3 combined: I expect the Wii to pass the combined numbers of 360/PS3 in March 2008, if there are no price drops. At the end of 2009 the Wii should have double the install base than the 360/PS3 combined and when all is said and done in this generation I expect the Wii to have at least tripled the sales of 360/PS3 combined. Sounds crazy, but John Lucas did such a poor job with his SSMB prediction, hehe. |
I doubt it, and let me tell you why.
Let's say for a second that the Wii will be a more succesful console than the PS2, Let's say it sells 150 million units when it's all said and done. That would mean that the 360 + PS3 would have to sell a total of 50 million units. The XBox sold around 25 million, I expect the 360 to do better than that. Let's lowball it and say 30 million (I personally believe it will sell more).
The Playstation has sold more than 100 million on each of its iteration, so it's a very succesfull brand, let's lowball it and say it only sells 1/3 of 100 million, so that gives the PS3 33 million (I personally believe it will sell more as well) . This would give us a very lowball estimate of 63 million which is more than 1/3 of a very optimistic outcome for the Wii. Honestly I don't think the Wii will be able to double the PS3 and 360 combined, but it'll win this generation unless something crazy happens.
