Does Wii need to outsell PS3 + 360 to lure 3rd parties?

[Biggerboat]

RolStoppable said:

I think the Wii has to outsell the PS3/360 combined to lure 3rd parties. Until it hasn't done that some or most 3rd party publishers still may think that it could be a fad and it's safer to make the big established franchise sequels for the HD consoles.

If the Wii achieves the dominant position in this generation they will be pretty much forced to make their big games for the Wii which will most likely result in exclusives since 1)porting games between Wii and 360/PS3 simply doesn't work well. These games won't show up before 2009 though, since a lot of big games are still in development for 360/PS3. Biggest userbase combined with lowest development costs = maximum profits.

As for the question whether the Wii will outsell the 360 and PS3 combined:

I expect the Wii to pass the combined numbers of 360/PS3 in March 2008, if there are no price drops. At the end of 2009 the Wii should have double the install base than the 360/PS3 combined and when all is said and done in this generation 2)I expect the Wii to have at least tripled the sales of 360/PS3 combined.

Sounds crazy, but John Lucas did such a poor job with his SSMB prediction, hehe.

1) I'm actually hoping that we'll sart to see Wii versions of 360/PS3 games. The story, art, gameplay machanics etc. are all there, all devs need to do is put them into a Wii engine and they're done. It may cost more than the reported 10% a normal port costs but look at the install base they are accessing! Fingers crossed!

2)That's PS2 style dominance, quite a prediction, especially considering Wiis don't break too often! Though we won't know til winter 2016 when PS3 hits 10 years:)