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Kasz216 on 09 November 2008
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Final-Fan said:
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:

(1) The odds of rolling a given number on one of three 20-sided dice are not 3 in 20.

(2) [edit:  double checking something.  I'm kind of distracted right now, so it may take a while, but I'm taking down the questionable assertion in the meantime.]

No, you seemed to miss the point.

There are 3 cases of drunk driving.  Hence 3/20.

While in the other case there are 2 cases of drunk driving 2/20.

Drunk driving and many others are "victimless" crimes unless they hit a victim.  But are still crimes.

So if there were 20 drunk drivers, each with a 1/20 chance to hit me, then I would have a 100% chance to get hit?  Or over 100% chance with 21?

http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

"Now say you have a 1 in 20 chance being hit by a drunk driver.  and there are two on the street.
"2/20 = 40/400."

This is completely wrong. 

I did screw up the basic math, cause i was rushed before work....

but still... the point remains solid.

If you have a 1 in 20 to get hit... and the immigrant has a 1 in 20 of getting hit... there is still a smaller chance of being saved by a "Human shield" then there is actually getting hit again.