Even though many people will not admit it, the 10 year lifespan for the PS3 does not work the way they think it does and is not likely to be as successful as it was for the PS2 simply because of the popularity difference between the two consoles. Although some consumers are naïve, most consumers are fully aware that the later in a console’s life you buy a system the shorter the "Healthy" life of the console is.
The PS3 might see a price reduction to $300 in 2009 and will probably not be $200 to $250 until later in 2010 (at the earliest) and people who are looking into this system will be fully aware that they’re buying into a 4 year old console that has 2 good years of life left before it is replaced by something better by Sony (and may have already been replaced by something better for not that much more money by Microsoft).
Whether people see value in the PS3 will depend upon whether they see much life for the console after it is replaced by something better, and this depends heavily on how well the system has sold and how well third party publishers are supporting the console at that point in time. At its current rate of Sales the PS3 will be at just over 30 Million units sold, and with the high development costs will probably not be seeing too much support outside of genres which have already performed really well.
Basically, the improvement possible from the lower price will be limited because (by then) the PS3 will be in its twilight years and will be (heavily) focused on genres of people who have already bought into the PS3.
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