I think these small budget titles (relatively) really can not be looked too closely upon for any trends. The big important trend to look at is when really large budget, large team size, multi-year projects games, hyped and preferably non-new IPs get released.
Lets face it, new IPs, even if they're great and epic and screams greatness, have a high chance of failure due to numerous factors beyond the control of the game quality.
We won't be able to tell the status of 3rd parties until games like RE:UC, or No more heroes or even NiGHTs. You have to look at the more high profile games to get a good idea because these are the ones the publishers and developers are putting their money and hopes on to do well. Its these big titles that will make them change their mind on whether they will continue or go somewhere else.
Same can be said for 360 and PS3. I bet a lot of developers looked at the sales of GoW and said, this validates the investment we're making and then look at sales of NGS/VF5 and worry a little.
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