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Zucas on 08 November 2008
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mrstickball said:
Zucas said:
Now now don't get testy about your numbers simply because people are arguing logically. If they were arguing illogically then you'd have a case.

Point being 4 million in 2 weeks is a lot, or 9 days for GeoW 2 and that's hard to believe for anyone. I mean these are like Halo and GTA like numbers and Gears is in no way that kind of franchise.

I'm not saying your numbers are wrong but I just trying to find a way how it could be that from a logical standpoint. And I personally hope your numbers are right cause it'll show just how large this holiday season will be but for now I got to be skeptical. This is not me saying you are wrong because I don't want to be wrong if you are right haha but I will be a little skeptical like I am of VGC numbers in general.

Zucas, if you saw an aggreggate system that predicted sales numbers accurately, 100% of the time, wouldn't you use it and tell others about it?

I have a job in the video games industry for this very thing. I began to post XBLA extrapolations a year ago, and got so accurate at it, game companies started offering me jobs - including Microsoft themself. It's the same system for retail.

You can doubt all you want, and I'd love to suspect the numbers too, but everything I've seen points to Gears of War 2 being nestled in between Grand Theft Auto IV and Halo 3 in terms of concurrent users on opening day. They could obviously change: GeoW could be more frontloaded, and cut some of the numbers off. The number of users could be over-tracked due to the nature of Gears, but for everything I can and will argue, the numbers have always made sense.

It's not like I'm comparing games from vastly different timeframes: Gears of War 2 has roughly 4.0 times the Day-0 users Fable 2 does. So why is it illogical to think that Gears 2 may sell around 3 times as many units in the same time period?

And it's fine to be skeptical. But I'm merely a mouthpiece for the data I see. I'm not skewing Gears numbers to say one thing or another. I am merely presenting the facts, and showing where the data is trending toward.

Gears is a huge franchise but it's hard for me to think GTA IV and Halo level on the 360.  However I said a few weeks ago that Gears 2 may be able to do this for the said reason of an inflated holiday season due to the growth of the industry.  That it might be able to open to Halo or GTA like numbers because of this.  I said that a couple of weeks ago before any of this data came out just to present my usual credentials. 

So why is it so bad for me to be skeptical... even of my own predictions that are similar to this that precede yours.  All I'm trying to say is people are going to be skeptical when they don't understand but I fully understand and still am skeptical... similar to the bolded part you said just so we can find some common ground on this.