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Three factors that nobody has considered.

The first factor is Microsoft will dissolve Ensemble after the release of this title. Were they to have had high hopes for this becoming a franchise they most assuredly would not be obliterating the team responsible. This does not speak to high confidence in either the title or this particular genre on the console.

The second factor dovetails with the first. Microsoft is not going to heavily market this title. Despite the license they must know this is a niche title, and not what Halo fans are specifically looking for. Even Nintendo doesn't heavily market third string Mario titles such as Super Mario Sluggers. Nintendo looks to Mario being on the box selling the title. The same as Microsoft probably hopes Master Chief will sell more copies of a RTS title.

The third factor is the holy trinity for the PS3. Every console has a holy trinity of games decided upon by gamers at launch. The three titles that justify the purchase of a console. For the PS3 it was Final Fantasy XIII, Metal Gear Solid 4, and Killzone 2. Oh and do not dump a load of revisionism about Final Fantasy XIII on me. The point is I can think of only one holy trinity game out of all three consoles that did not go totally gang busters. Most of them have sold well in excess of five million. The only exception being Metroid Prime which sold a paltry 1.42 million units. Still that will probably top Halo Wars.

Halo Wars will get a very high average reviews probably over ninety given how well Civilization Revolution was received. I have played Civilization 4, and honestly I felt the console version was painfully watered down. So the reviews will be on par it is good to be a big fish in a small pond, but the sales will be nowhere similar.